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Wall St:
Dow +0.03%
S&P +0.2%
Nasdaq +0.5%
VIX +0.56 to 15.05
Gold +2.3% to $US4614.16 an ounce
Brent oil +0.7% to $US63.76 a barrel
Iron ore +0.5% to $US109.05 a tonne
10-year yield: US 4.18% Australia 4.70%

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News

Crypto: sell-the-growth continues

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation grew by 1% over the past day and is down 1% from a week ago. Bitcoin received a boost from reports of a criminal investigation against the head of the Federal Reserve, which created momentum for a flight from US assets. In our view, this precedent is negative for risk appetite.

Bitcoin jumped to $92,500 but saw a significant influx of sellers, returning to $90,300 at the time of writing. Testing of the 50-day moving average as support continues. A slip below $90K could have a strong psychological effect, quickly taking the price to $87K and then sending it lower below $80K.

XRP is losing for the seventh day in a row, like Bitcoin, rolling back to the 50-day MA and close to the round level of $2.0. The coin is still up 10% since the beginning of the year, but the initial momentum has clearly lost steam, as there are too many people in the markets willing to sell on the rise. Most likely, this change in strategy for all cryptocurrencies will characterise the market in the coming months.

News Background

The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2022, according to CryptoQuant. Historically, reaching such levels has preceded periods of consolidation or even bullish reversals.

Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 in a base case scenario, according to VanEck's forecast. This will happen if the first cryptocurrency becomes a currency for international settlements and enters the reserves of central banks. The main obstacle to mass adoption remains the scalability of the network. VanEck emphasised the importance of developing second-level solutions that will speed up transactions and reduce commissions.

Monero (XMR) is regaining its status as the leading anonymous coin amid the crisis in the Zcash ecosystem following the departure of its development team. The asset has been growing steadily for several weeks, outperforming most of its competitors in the sector.

There are more and more signs in the crypto market pointing to the end of the sell-off. Among them are the stabilisation of outflows from ETFs, the situation with perpetual futures and positions on the CME, according to JPMorgan.

MSCI's decision on 6 January regarding companies accumulating cryptocurrencies is also favourable for cryptocurrencies. The global provider of stock indices has decided not to exclude them from its indices during the review in February 2026.

News

Gold shines on an anti-fiat thesis

The dollar suffered due to threats to the Fed’s independence

Gold managed to renew its record highs.

While labour market statistics strengthened the US dollar, the Justice Department's lawsuit against Jerome Powell seriously weakened it. The USD index recorded its worst fall in three weeks due to fears that the White House could undermine the Fed's independence, filling the FOMC with very dovish members. This risk stands in striking contrast with the current expectations of just two cuts by the end of 2026.

The US administration's lawsuit against Lisa Cook is not without logic. She will remain a member of the FOMC for a long time to come. By comparison, the developments involving the Fed Chair appear considerably more perplexing. Jerome Powell is due to leave his post in May. Moreover, thanks to him, the Committee has been leaning towards lowering rates at recent meetings. The case concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve building may set a precedent for investigating the circumstances surrounding the recent demolition of the East Wing of the White House.

Markets perceive the resumption of pressure on the Fed as a reason to close short positions on EURUSD.
December employment growth in line with forecasts and a drop in unemployment to 4.4% gave derivatives reason to reduce the chances of easing in March to 29% and in April to 42%, with a full cut not priced in until June. The five-month pause, coupled with wide spreads on US and other bonds, had created a solid foundation for the US dollar to strengthen over the previous two weeks.

The Supreme Court is ready to come to the greenback's aid. It has stated that it will rule on the legality of the White House tariffs on 14 January. The US economy could receive additional stimulus in the form of a return to tariffs. Its acceleration could force the Fed to keep rates high for a long time. This will support the bears on EURUSD.

However, the risks of tariffs being declared illegal do not scare the White House. According to Kevin Hassett, the US will be able to quickly bring its tariff policy back to its previous format. Washington has a plan B that is just as effective as plan A.

The revival of the topic of the Fed's loss of independence allowed Gold to update its record high. For the first time in history, the precious metal exceeded $4,600 per ounce. According to JP Morgan, gold is an anti-fiat currency. The growth of public debt and attacks on central banks are increasing interest in debasement trading. The company is ready to hold up to 20% of its portfolio assets in precious metals and similar assets, changing the classic 60/40 model. (FxPro)

The Lead Up

Jan 12

ASX futures up 12 points or 0.1%/8697
AUD flat at US66.94¢
Bitcoin $90,571.34 - 0.17%
Dow +0.5%
S&P +0.7%
Nasdaq +0.8%
Gold +0.7% to $US4509.50 an ounce
Brent oil +2.2% at $US63.34 a barrel
Iron ore +0.4% at $US108.30 a ton

Before The Bell

Media Man Favs

TKO Group Holdings Inc $199.63 -2.46 -1.22%
Netflix Inc $89.44 -1.09 -1.21%
Paramount Skydance Corp $12.06 -0.21 -1.71%
Tesla Inc $445.01 +9.21 +2.11%
Microsoft Corp $479.28 +1.17 +0.24%
Alphabet Inc Class A $328.57 +3.13 +0.96%

News

Jan 12

Numbers Double Check

Australian Dollar: $0.6671 USD (down $0.0022 USD) Iron Ore Feb Spot Price: $108.30 USD (up $0.05 USD) Oil Price: $59.12 USD (up $0.90 USD)
Gold Price: $4,509.20 USD (up $52.48 USD)
Copper Price: $5.8905 USD (up 0.0990 USD)
Dow Jones: 49,504.07 (up 237.96 points)

News Lead Up

Jan 10

ASX 200 futures up 29 points/0.3 per cent to 8714

AUD -0.1% to US66.90¢

Bitcoin $90,338.65 -0.95%

Wall St:
Dow +0.5%
S&P +0.7%
Nasdaq +0.8%
VIX -0.97 to 14.48
Gold +0.6% to $US4506.19 an ounce
Brent oil +1.7% to $US63.02 a barrel
Iron ore +0.4% to $US108.30 a ton

10-year yield:
US 4.17%
Australia 4.68%

News

Geopolitics will destroy the euro

EURUSD falls due to geopolitics and expectations of tariff removal

Gold returns to debasement trading

The US dollar continued its advance on Forex thanks to a new batch of strong macro statistics. Jobless claims rose less than expected. Productivity rose to a two-year high, and the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to its lowest level since 2009. Donald Trump's plan to balance foreign trade with import tariffs is working. However, the Supreme Court may rule the tariffs illegal by the end of the week on 9 January. The cancellation of import duties would return funds to American companies and households, which have largely absorbed the cost of tariffs that previously weighed on economic growth. The US economy has continued to expand, supported by investment in artificial intelligence, rising productivity, and the wealth effect created by record equity markets that have boosted household prosperity. The return of tariff revenues would effectively act as a fiscal stimulus, increasing disposable income and corporate cash flow. As a result, GDP growth and inflationary pressures are likely to accelerate. This combination will create another barrier to lowering the federal funds rate. Stephen Miron's calls to cut it by 150 basis points in 2026 seem like a voice crying in the wilderness. Most FOMC members understand perfectly well what the return of money from tariffs could lead to. The hawks will gain a strong trump card, the pause in the monetary expansion cycle will be prolonged, and the US dollar will benefit from this. Rumours of additional sanctions against Russia are putting pressure on the EURUSD. Diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Ukraine are not yielding results, and the continuation of the armed conflict will continue to hold back the eurozone economy. Events in Venezuela and talk of Greenland joining the US are increasing geopolitical tensions. According to ECB Vice-President Luis Guindos, this could hurt business, and increased household savings will slow GDP growth. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold has managed to counterattack. The precious metal is able to benefit from the Supreme Court's repeal of tariffs. The return of money will lead to an increase in the US budget deficit and public debt. These processes underlie debasement trading. In 2025, it became one of the key drivers of the 65% rally in XAUUSD. (FxPro)

News

From gold to crypto, fundies name their top trades for 2026

It’s not all about gold in 2026 as investors reveal their high-conviction plays across the ASX, commodities, currencies and bitcoin.

Jan 7

Investors have headed into the new year convinced that the roaring bull market in safe havens like gold and silver will not be the only game in town for making money.

While the record run for gold is expected to hold its ground, fund managers and strategists say the road map for financial markets will start to broaden into slightly more adventurous territory.

After 12 months of the ASX struggling to keep pace with its international peers and the stubborn weakness in the Australian dollar, bitcoin is among the assets tipped to make a comeback.

The market is expected to shift its focus towards the changing of the guard at the US Federal Reserve and the path of global interest rates.

Against this backdrop, here are some of the top trades that professional investors have made across asset classes for 2026.

Commodities
Geologist turned fund manager Rick Squire at Acorn Capital says the multi-year rally in gold will continue, but he is betting that producers of the yellow metal and businesses with advanced development projects like Golden Horse Minerals and Rox Resources will be the biggest winners.

“The best gains will come from developers or companies starting up new operations,” he says. “Explorers may also start to run, but that will be in late 2026 or later.”

Argonaut’s David Franklyn is the most bullish on uranium as major global economies look to nuclear energy as a component of their base load power.

Perennial’s resource specialist Sam Berridge agrees, adding that uranium could be the next critical mineral that the US backs as a means of spurring investment in domestic supply.

“The nuclear renaissance 2.0 accelerated materially into the close of 2025,” Berridge says.

In a more contrarian pick, Richard Morrow, who runs the Lowell Resources Fund, believes oil will shrug off concerns about oversupply and bounce back as the US dollar continues to soften. Brent prices lost 16 per cent last year because of a global supply glut.

Stocks
While the broader sharemarket is tipped to grind higher in 2026, Australian Ethical head of Australian equities Nathan Parkin says some of the best opportunities are in building materials, particularly companies with meaningful US exposure such as Reece.

While the stock declined into the back half of 2025, causing it to slip out of the ASX 100, Parkin believes Reece’s earnings have finally bottomed. “The propensity for those earnings is to be sharply higher in the next few years,” he says.

Parkin also likes Reliance Worldwide, describing its focus more on home repair and maintenance rather than new builds that is still leveraged to a recovery in building demand.

Aaron Binsted of Lazard Asset Management, meanwhile, says he has shifted his focus to more long-term bets for 2026 and is betting on logistics and moving away from the local tech sector.

His top picks are New Zealand-based Mainfreight and Freightways.

“As the economy turns, we’re expecting those to be good long-term earnings per share and dividend growers,” Binsted says.

For Morningstar director of equity research Johannes Faul, the best opportunities are in the smaller retailers – specifically fast food and footwear. Faul says that stocks such as Domino’s Pizza have been unfairly beaten down, creating attractive entry points.

He’s also backing Accent Group, the firm behind several shoe retailers including Hype and Platypus. He says the company’s recent share price slump is “overdone” that has left the stock trading at a deep discount.

Foreign exchange
Currency strategists are betting on a stronger Australian dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates high, while other central banks like in Europe and the US look to cut.

Alvise Marino of UBS favours the Aussie against the euro as the German economy falters. He says Australia’s lower debt and higher rates make it the safer bet. “The Aussie is likely to retain an interest rate advantage,” he adds.

The strategist has forecast the euro to drop to $1.70 by late 2026, from $1.75 currently.

Westpac’s Richard Franulovich and NAB’s Ray Attrill, meanwhile, are backing the Aussie against the US dollar. They expect a “diverging” rate path with the Fed to cut the benchmark while the RBA could look to hike.

Attrill adds that a new and likely more “dovish” head of the Fed when chairman Jerome Powell steps down in May will provide an extra tailwind.

Cryptocurrency
In the world of digital assets, Merkle Tree Capital chief investment officer Ryan McMillin is expecting bitcoin to rebound later in the year as the Trump administration “runs the economy hot” heading into the midterm elections.

While bond markets imply at least two US rate cuts in 2026, McMillin is expecting even more easing to be priced once US President Donald Trump names the new Fed chief.

“We see 2026 as a year where market structure and macro finally catch up with the underlying progress,” he says. “Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the second half … led by institutional flows rather than retail leverage.”

Crypto exchange giant Coinbase believes bitcoin will lead a digital rally in the first half before smaller alt-coins play catch up later in the year.

Global head of institutional research David Duong notes that there is $US7.5 trillion ($11.2 trillion) sitting in US money market funds which will be partially redeployed into crypto markets as the Fed cuts rates.

Citi forecasts bitcoin will soar to a record $US143,000 this year, up from about $US93,747 currently, and ethereum will climb to $US4304, up from $US3224, driven by a rebound in demand for exchange-traded funds.

Fixed income
Matthew Wacher, Morningstar’s chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific, likes Australian 10-year government bonds. He argues that with yields of about 4.8 per cent, the bonds offer a better balance of reward and safety than riskier corporate loans or US debt.

“The safety of Aussie government bonds and such yields are pretty attractive. They can give your portfolio a lot of protection,” he says, noting they currently offer the best “risk-adjusted” returns for the year ahead.

Australia is one of only nine countries with a top-notch triple-A rating by the top three rating agencies.

In addition to Australian government bonds, Tim Hext at Pendal is also bullish on gilts, adding that he likes how both Australia and the UK governments are managing their budgets. “At the end of the day, fiscal policy matters more than monetary policy,” he says.

While the United States and Germany continue to spend freely, he says Australia and the UK are cutting public spending or raising taxes. It’s for this reason Hext is betting against US and German government bonds and expects both to perform poorly by comparison. (AFR) *Full article and coverage via subscription to The Australian Financial Review

News

The Australian Financial Review wins Media Man 'Newspaper Of The Month' award

News

Australia

Jan 9

ASX gains on tech and health; Ansell dives 6pc

The Australian sharemarket posted a modest gain on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 adding 0.3 per cent to close at 8,72.8 points. WiseTech Global was up 2.2 per cent at $68.28, CSL advanced 2.6 per cent to $174.45 and Monadelphous Group finished 2.2 per cent higher at $27.37. However, BHP fell 0.8 per cent to end the session at $47.34, Beach Energy was down 1.4 per cent at $1.07 and takeover target BlueScope Steel shed 1.6 per cent to close at $29.40. (RMS)

News

Employment Hero settles with rival Seek

Human resources technology company Employment Hero has dropped its legal action against recruitment firm Seek, which is both an investor in Employment Hero and a rival. Employment Hero launched its action after Seek cut off access to its application program interface (API), which is a tool that permits companies such as Employment Hero to directly post job ads to Seek and to manage job candidate applications. Employment Hero had claimed that Seek's action amounted to anti-competitive conduct, but the two firms have advised that the matter has been resolved. Employment Hero's access to Seek's API will be permanently reinstated, and a three-week hearing scheduled for September will not go ahead. (RMS)

News

Nvidia's platform to slash AI costs

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has used the CES, the world's biggest consumer electronics show in Las Vegas, to announce the release of a new hardware platform. Known as Rubin, it promises to reduce the cost of operating large scale artificial intelligence models by 90 per cent, while Huang also announced that Nvidia has entered into a partnership with Mercedes to create the world's first ‘thinking' and 'reasoning' car; he says Nvidia's vision is that every car and truck will be autonomous at some stage in the future (RMS)

News

Sports

As Aussies seal Ashes victory, economists hit Bazball for six

England's aggressive batting style known as 'Bazball' is under renewed scrutiny after losing the 2025-26 Ashes series 4-1. E61 Institute economists Adit Maitra and Matthew Maltman have analysed England's performance in Test matches since Bazball was introduced by incoming team coach Brendon McCullum in 2022. They found that England had initial success, winning 13 Tests during the first 18 months of the Bazball era; the team lost four matches and just one resulted in a draw. However, England's win rate has fallen sharply since the 2023 Ashes series, as opposing teams have adjusted their own playing style in response to the Bazball tactics; it should also be noted that England did not tour Australia or India - two of the highest-rated Test nations - during the initial phase of the Bazball era. (RMS)

News

Resources/Energy

Defence demand tipped to boost copper stampede

S&P Global has forecast that worldwide demand for copper will top 42 million tonnes by 2040, compared with 28 million tonnes in 2025. However, the firm warns that the demand-supply deficit could reach 10 million by 2040 unless there is a big increase in copper production. Carlos Pascual from S&P Global emphasises that copper supply is now a national security issue, given its importance to industries such as defence and artificial intelligence, and the fact that copper processing is now dominated by China. BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are amongst the big miners that are ramping up their exposure to copper. (RMS)

News

'Like a sauna': World's hottest location

While 40-degree temperatures in Victoria this week amounted to a near record for that state, such temperatures are commonplace in Western Australia's Pilbara region. It is home to much of WA's $150 billion resources sector, but extreme heat there is becoming a material risk and is forcing mining companies to put in measures to protect their assets and their workforces. Dee Egan, who is a resident of the Pilbara town of Onslow, which has endured 45-degree heat for the better part of the past week, says living there feels like you are in a sauna all day. (RMS)

News

Oil stocks are cheap for a reason

Shares in Woodside Energy, Santos and Beach Energy have fallen in value by between eight per cent and 44 per cent over the last five years. In contrast, shares in the world's biggest oil companies have risen by up to 161 per cent over this period. Sharemarket experts contend that there are a number of reasons why Australian oil producers are trading at a discount; they include government policy headwinds and the fact that takeover bids are unlikely, as well as company-specific issues. Meanwhile, analysts say the Trump administation's military action in Venezuela is likely to drive the crude oil price lower, while rebuilding the nation's oil industry is expected to take years. (RMS)

News

Jan 8

ASX miner cheers Trump's 'involvement' in Greenland

Energy Transition Minerals' MD Daniel Mamadou contends that the potential for increased US involvement in Greenland is a "positive", and that it will benefit companies which operate in the Danish self-governed territory. Energy Transition Minerals is engaged in a long-running dispute with the Greenland government over its Kvanefjeld rare earths project; the deposit also contains uranium, and the government banned uranium mining in 2021. Kvanefjeld is estimated to contain up to one billion tonnes of rare earth minerals, including terbium. Energy Transition Minerals' share price rose 44.9 per cent to $0.145 on Wednesday. (RMS)

News

Nickel price offers respite for last few Australian mines

The price of nickel has risen to $US18,785 per tonne in London trading, which is its highest level since October 2024. The rally follows Vale's decision to suspend nickel production in Indonesia until the nation's government approves its annual production plan. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings subsidiary BMI has downgraded its nickel price forecast for 2026 due to expectations that the global surplus will rise; the firm now expects the nickel price to average $US15,000 per tonne. However, BMI is upbeat about the longer-term price outlook, contending that rising demand for nickel will reduce the glut. (Roy Morgan Summary)

News

Best Quotes Of The Day

Media Man

Cryptocurrency, Finance and World

"Volatility is Satoshi’s gift to the faithful." - Michael Saylor

"Bitcoin is a tool for freeing humanity from oligarchs and tyrants, dressed up as a get-rich-quick scheme." — Naval Ravikant

"We have elected to put our money and faith in a mathematical framework that is free of politics and human error." — Tyler Winklevoss

"You can't stop things like Bitcoin. It will be everywhere, and the world will have to readjust. World governments will have to readjust." — John McAfee

"Bitcoin is the most important invention in the history of the world since the Internet." — Roger Ver

"Cryptocurrency is such a powerful concept that it can almost overturn governments." — Charles Lee

"In the future, national currencies will become obsolete. Bitcoin will become the single global currency." — Jack Dorsey

"The future of finance is crypto, whether it’s in payments, contracts, or savings." — Changpeng Zhao

"Crypto offers freedom to the unbanked and hope to the underprivileged." — Elizabeth Stark

"The new frontier of innovation is in decentralization. Blockchain leads the charge." — Don Tapscott

"Digital currency is here to stay, and it’s only a matter of how long before governments embrace it." — Brad Garlinghouse

Pop Culture

Dream Matches: Fantasy Booking

Santa vs Grinch
Bulls vs Bears
Crypto King vs Mr World Bank
Citizens vs NWO
Neo vs Agent Smith
John McAfee vs You Know Who!
TKO vs Naysayers
Jake Paul, Polymarket and BETR vs Naysayers
Pro Boxing vs Newspaper Reports
VKM vs The World
Paul Bros vs Mainstream Wokes
Mr X vs Mr Bluesky
Chris Jericho vs Dirtsheets
NFL vs everyone
Zuffa vs MVP
Netflix vs World
Meta vs Australia

Markets, Cryptos and Biz

December 2025

Dec 31

Sydney, Australia to Wall St, New York

Digital Bush Telegraph

Last Day Of The Year Edition!

Markets

ASX 200 futures down 6 points/0.1% to 8701

AUD +0.01% to US66.95¢

Bitcoin $88,370.39 +1.37%

Wall St:

Dow -0.2%
S&P -0.1%
Nasdaq -0.2%
VIX +0.16 to 14.36
Gold +0.4% to $US4348.71 an ounce
Silver +8.2% to $US76.30/oz
Brent oil -0.03% to $US61.92 a barrel
Iron ore -0.1% to $US105.70 a tonne
10-year yield: US 4.12% Australia 4.74%

Cryptos

Bitcoin $88,370.39 +1.37%
XRP $1.8738 +1.15%
BNB $860.21 +1.11%
Dogecoin $0.1229 +0.07%

Media Man Favs

TKO $214.17 -1.94 -0.90%

Alphabet Inc Class A $313.85 +0.29 +0.092%

Netflix Inc $93.78 -0.37 -0.39%

Paramount Skydance Corp $13.51 +0.0100 +0.074%

Porsche Automobile Holding SE Unsponsored Germany ADR $4.64 +0.040 +0.87%

Mercedes Benz Group ADR $17.67 +0.13 +0.74%

Volvo ADR (Owner/Parent of Mack Trucks) $32.10 +0.13 Today +0.42%

Formula One Group Series A $89.26 +0.42 +0.47%

Microsoft Corp $487.53 +0.43 +0.088%

Meta Platforms Inc $666.01 +7.32 +1.11%

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp $259.74 +1.79 +0.69%

Imax Corp $37.24 -0.21 -0.56%

News Corp Class A $26.39 +0.14 +0.53%

CoStar Group Inc $67.86 +0.26 +0.38%

eBay Inc $87.10 -0.64 -0.73%

PayPal Holdings Inc $59.10 -0.39 -0.66%

Wynn Resorts Ltd $120.33 -1.94 -1.59%

Rio Tinto Ltd $146.77 -0.24 - 0.16% (ASX)

BHP Group Ltd $60.92 +0.53 +0.88%

Hancock & Gore Ltd $0.22

Mineral Resources Ltd $54.33 -0.13%

Evolution Mining Ltd $8.41 -0.34 -3.91%

Caterpillar Inc $577.39 -1.22 -0.21%

Tesla Inc $454.43 -5.21 -1.13%

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp
$12.57 -0.59 -4.48%

Gold.com Inc $33.45 +0.030 +0.090%

Amazon.com Inc $232.53 +0.46 +0.20%

News Lead Up

12 + Hours Ago

Dec 30

Sydney, Australia to Wall St, New York

Digital Bush Telegraph

Markets

ASX 200 futures pointing down 6 points/0.1% to 8711

AUD -0.3% to US66.93¢

Bitcoin $87,218.84 -0.73%

Wall St:
Dow -0.5%
S&P -0.4%
Nasdaq -0.5%
VIX +0.59 to 14.19

Gold -4.4% to $US4335.01 an ounce
Silver -6.8% to $US71.94/oz
Platinum -13.8% to $US2118.03/oz
Brent oil +1.8% to $US61.75 a barrel
Iron ore +1.3% to $US106.05 a tonne

10-year yield: US 4.11% Australia 4.75%

Cryptos

Bitcoin $87,218.84 -0.73%
XRP $1.8529 -0.70%
BNB $852.81 -0.71%
Dogecoin $0.1231 -0.64%

Stockmarket

US Stock Market Overview (as of late December 2025)

The US stock market is in a strong bull run heading into the final days of 2025, with major indices near all-time highs and on track for a robust year-end close. Trading volume has been light post-holidays, but sentiment remains positive amid resilient economic growth, AI-driven gains, and expectations of a "Santa Claus rally" (the seasonal uptrend in the last five trading days of the year and first two of the next).

Key Index Levels (from the most recent close on December 26, 2025)

S&P 500 — Closed at approximately 6,930 (down slightly that day but hit an intraday high near 6,946). Up nearly 18% year-to-date, with the index eyeing the psychological 7,000 milestone in the coming sessions.

Dow Jones Industrial Average — Closed at around 48,711 (fractionally lower), up solidly for the year.

Nasdaq Composite — Closed near 23,593, up about 22% YTD, led by tech and AI stocks

Markets were closed on December 27 (weekend) and reopen on December 29 for the last few trading days of 2025. Expect thin liquidity and potential for modest moves as investors position for 2026.

Broader Context

2025 has been a resilient year despite challenges like early tariff impacts, AI spending concerns, and Fed rate adjustments (benchmark now at 3.50%-3.75%). Tech and AI names (e.g., Nvidia crossing $5T market cap) have dominated, but there's been rotation into cyclicals, materials, and foreign equities. Precious metals like gold and silver are at historic highs amid safe-haven demand.

Wall Street forecasts for 2026 are bullish, with many targeting S&P 500 levels between 7,100–8,100. However, history suggests potential pullbacks after strong years, so caution on overvaluation is advised. (Grok)

News

Dec 24

Precious metals rewarded for success

The US dollar is falling as a safe-haven asset amid growing risk appetite.

Gold is performing well, but other assets in the sector are looking even better.

GDP growth of 4.3% in the third quarter did not help the US dollar. It would seem that the strength of the economy, the rise in Treasury bond yields and the decline in the likelihood of the Fed easing monetary policy in March to less than 50% should have cooled the hot heads of the EURUSD bulls. However, greed reigns supreme in the financial markets.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high, which had a negative impact on the USD index.

Donald Trump was encouraged by the success of the US economy, citing tariffs as the main reason. The president said that the new Fed chairman would cut rates if the market was performing well. Investors should be rewarded for their success. Support from the White House is helping US stock indices, improving global risk appetite and reducing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. In such conditions, high-yield currencies feel most at home.

The British pound reached a three-month high against the greenback, and the Australian dollar reached a 14-month high. After the Reserve Bank signalled the end of the monetary policy easing cycle, the futures market began to price in expectations of a cash rate hike in 2026.

By Christmas, the start date for monetary tightening had shifted to June, which created a tailwind for AUDUSD.

Investors in a Bloomberg survey see the Bank of England's neutral rate at 3.25% and estimate the chances of it falling to 3% in 2026 as fifty-fifty. They are more dovish than the BoE. At their December meeting, Andrew Bailey and his colleagues opted for caution, which supported GBPUSD. Meanwhile, gold has broken through the psychologically important level of $4,500 per ounce.

JP Morgan forecasts XAUUSD to rise to 5,000 by the end of 2026 and estimates the scale of bullion purchases by central banks and retail investors at 585 tonnes per quarter. According to the bank, every 100 tonnes above the base 350 tonnes leads to a 2% increase in precious metal prices.

Gold has already gained more than 70% in value in 2025 and is heading for its best performance since 1979.

Other assets in the precious metals sector are growing even faster. Prices for silver, platinum and palladium have more than doubled this year. Along with strong investment demand, fears about the introduction of US import duties are playing into their hands. (FxPro)

News

Dec 29

A confident Euro and a vulnerable Yen

Rapid GDP growth in the eurozone has helped EURUSD.

USDJPY risks rising to 164. Christmas week turned out to be the worst for the US dollar since June. Falling Treasury yields and new S&P 500 records caused the USD index to retreat. The chances of the Fed easing monetary policy in March rose above 50% again, and there is active discussion in Forex about the new Fed chair. Historically, central bank chiefs have had a significant influence on the FOMC. Donald Trump's man could bring down interest rates and the greenback. However, the Fed is not a one-man show. Decisions are made collectively based on incoming data. The longer the pause in the monetary expansion cycle lasts, the higher the chances of a correction in the EURUSD to an upward trend. In this case, the yield differential between US and German bonds will remain wide. Money will flow from Europe to the United States, strengthening the dollar. In the medium term, monetary policy divergence and a narrowing gap in GDP growth could play in favour of the euro. Financial Times experts expect the eurozone economy to expand by 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. In 2025, it will grow by 1.4%, significantly more than the 0.9% forecast at the end of 2024. Faster economic growth in the currency bloc has been one of the key drivers of the EURUSD's 13.5% rally this year. Another trump card for the euro has been the divergence in monetary policy. Financial Times experts believe that the ECB's deposit rate will remain at 2% until the end of 2026 and rise to 2.25% in 2027. The futures market expects two acts of monetary expansion from the Fed next year. The narrowing of the spread between US and German bond yields is a strong argument in favour of maintaining the upward trend in EURUSD. Meanwhile, the number of yen bears is growing after the Bank of Japan failed to bring about a serious correction in USDJPY by raising the overnight rate in December. BNP Paribas forecasts the pair to rise to 160 by the end of 2026, while JP Morgan forecasts 164. The strengthening of the greenback has caused gold to retreat from record highs. The precious metal is heading for its best annual performance since 1979. Since the beginning of the year, it has risen by more than 70%, partly due to capital inflows into ETFs. The reserves of the largest specialised exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, have increased by more than 20%.

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Dec 29

Miners and Metals

Nickel price jumps as Indonesia signals big production cut

Nickel prices are at a seven-month high after Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, signalled plans to cut supply of the metal in a Christmas gift for struggling Australian miners who have been shuttering projects.

The rising prices came after Indonesian media reported Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia had confirmed plans for unspecified production cuts. A group representing Indonesian nickel miners this month said it expected Jakarta to enforce a 34 per cent cut in volumes next year.

While the size of the cuts has not been finalised, the comments suggest the worst could be over for miners after a two-and-a-half year period in which prices for the metal were crushed by excess production in Indonesia.

Nickel was a fashionable commodity for investors between 2017 and 2022 on expectations that demand would rise in line with the metal’s use in the batteries used in electric vehicles. Prices reached $US30,000 a tonne in late 2022, but a wave of Indonesian supply emerged in 2023 as new technology allowed low-grade material to be cheaply processed into top quality metal.

The extra supply pushed nickel prices below $US20,000 since mid-2023, forcing Australian miners like BHP and Panoramic Resources to mothball their Western Australian mines, refineries and smelters.

The price had slumped to $US14,110 a tonne at the London Metal Exchange on December 16, but has rallied to $US15,430 after reports of Indonesian production cuts. The price had not been above $US15,400 since May.

The recovery could help BHP’s nickel assets just 14 months before a self-imposed deadline to decide whether they should be permanently closed. BHP mothballed the assets last year in the belief the supply surge was a structural change to nickel markets, and not merely a cyclical one.

BHP announced at its August half-year results that it would attempt to sell the assets, but finding a buyer has proved difficult given the enormous rehabilitation obligations attached to them. If a buyer cannot be found, BHP will permanently shut the nickel division in February 2027.

Another potential winner from a nickel price recovery would be businessman Duncan Saville, whose companies control the mothballed Savannah mine in WA. The mine closures have seen Australian exports slump from about 180,000 tonnes in 2017 to 81,000 tonnes this year.

The Industry Department provided a gloomy outlook for the sector in a report published on December 19, predicting prices would stay low, and export volumes would fall further as IGO Limited prepared for the Nova-Bollinger nickel mine in WA to reach the end of its working life.

Closure of Nova would leave Glencore’s Murrin Murrin operation as the last remaining major nickel mine in the country.

Industry Department economists predicted Australia will ship just 49,000 tonnes of nickel in 2027; down 73 per cent in a decade.

Batteries account for about 16 per cent of global nickel demand, with the stainless-steel sector still buying about 63 per cent of the world’s nickel.

Fitch predicts nickel prices will average $US16,000 a tonne in 2026.

Silver continues to soar

Signs of recovery in nickel prices come as silver prices have soared. The precious metal was fetching $US28.83 an ounce on the final trading day of 2024, but soared to a record high $US79.27 on Boxing Day 2025.

Financial markets have traditionally used gold prices to determine an appropriate price for silver, and the rally in silver prices is partly linked to the earlier rally in gold prices over the last 12 months.

Very few mines are primarily focused on silver production, with the metal typically occurring as a byproduct at mines that are focused on copper, zinc or lead. Australia’s biggest silver producers include South32’s Cannington mine in Queensland, Glencore’s Mount Isa hub and BHP’s Olympic Dam.

Iltani Resources, an ASX-listed miner exploring for silver, zinc, lead and indium near Herberton in Queensland, is one producer that has seen its share price jump more than 200 per cent alongside the silver rally.

“It puts us in a really good position to hit 2026 with a really aggressive drill program,” said Iltani managing director Donald Garner. (AFR). *Full article and coverage via The Australian Financial Review

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VC/Sports Biz/Tech News

Jake & Logan Paul Announce $30M Venture Fund Backing AI, Robotics Startups

Anti Fund, co-founded by YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul and entrepreneur Geoffrey Woo, closed its oversubscribed $30 million Anti Fund I on December 3, bringing the firm’s total assets under management to more than $65 million. The firm named influencer and WWE star Logan Paul as a general partner, marking the first time the Paul brothers have become business partners.

According to a press release, the venture capital firm concentrates its investments in artificial intelligence and robotics companies. Anti Fund focuses on pre-seed and seed-stage ventures, as well as select growth-stage industry leaders. The portfolio includes OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, Cognition, Polymarket, Flock Safety, and Physical Intelligence.

Investment Strategy

Anti Fund employs what it calls an “extreme barbell strategy,” making first checks of $100,000 to $500,000 for 10% ownership in technical founders, while also deploying $10 million or more in growth investments into industry leaders.

The fund’s limited partners include institutional investors Aquarian Holdings and Autilus Partners, as well as individual investors Marc Andreessen and Chris Dixon. Focuspoint Private Capital Group served as the exclusive placement agent for the fund.

Founder Background

Woo holds a bachelor’s degree with honors and distinction in computer science from Stanford and has co-authored numerous U.S. patents and peer-reviewed scientific papers.

Jake Paul built his career as a professional boxer and entrepreneur. Logan Paul founded PRIME, a beverage brand, and performs as a professional wrestler.

“Jake, what I realized is that he is essentially an avatar of the American dream, and I think Logan, in a very similar parallel sense, also represents that,” Woo said in an interview with FOX Business.

“When Jake named Anti Fund, I think we all share the same belief, that the people that create the future are the crazy ones that believe they can do it.”

Business Philosophy

The firm positions itself as founder-friendly, emphasizing what it calls the intersection of capital and attention. While capital remains a commodity, Anti Fund leverages the Paul brothers’ cultural influence to source founders and accelerate portfolio company growth.

Jake Paul discussed his long-standing interest in venture capital, noting he met with companies including Google, Uber, and Twitter in Silicon Valley as a teenager.“

Not only are we investors, but we can disrupt Logan with PRIME, me with W, Betr is always in the top five in the App Store is absolutely crushing it,” Paul told FOX.

“And these are companies that we’ve incubated ourselves, because if no one else is building it and we see a hole in the market, we can hire the best teams and grow and scale these companies in a major way.”

Anti Fund has incubated and funded several of Jake Paul’s business ventures, including W and Betr Media.

Rudy Sahay, founder and managing partner of Aquarian Holdings, said the fund closing “validates the confidence investors have in their strategy” and noted the firm “carved out a unique position at the intersection of frontier technologies and culture.”

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